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Correlation
of values
-58%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
387
These move opposite each other about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~34% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
U-6 Unemployment Rate moves ~11 months before USD/CAD Exchange Rate
Watch U-6 Unemployment Rate for an early read on USD/CAD Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-58%
Based on values
95% CI
-65% → -52%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
387 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
387
13,891
Normalized
387
13,891
Prepared
387
665
Aligned
387
387
Invalid removed
R²(i)
34.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
387
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+11 months
Correlation at this shift
-66%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CAD Exchange Rate shifted 11 months earlier. Reads: "Does U-6 Unemployment Rate today line up with USD/CAD Exchange Rate 11 months from now?"
376 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+11 months
-66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+4%
55 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+11%
66 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
128 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
278
A: 0 / B: 278
Series A
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 387 raw → 387 prepared
Series B
USD/CAD Exchange Rate
DEXCAUS
FRED · 13,891 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0323
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.6077
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexcaus_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y