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Correlation
of values
-23%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
5,835
These move opposite each other about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-23%
Based on values
95% CI
-26% → -21%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
5,835 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,851
13,891
Normalized
5,851
13,891
Prepared
5,851
13,891
Aligned
5,835
5,835
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
5,835
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-23%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
5,835 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-23%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-23%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+31%
48 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-83%
144 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
8,072
A: 16 / B: 8056
Series A
10Y Breakeven Inflation
T10YIE
FRED · 5,851 raw → 5,851 prepared
Series B
USD/CAD Exchange Rate
DEXCAUS
FRED · 13,891 raw → 13,891 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
129
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0837
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.3967
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexcaus_fred-t10yie_daily_5y