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Correlation
of values
+46%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
2,482
These move in the same direction about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~21% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+46%
Based on values
95% CI
+43% → +49%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,482 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
2,514
13,891
Normalized
2,514
13,891
Prepared
2,514
13,891
Aligned
2,482
2,482
Invalid removed
R²(i)
21.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
2,482
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+46%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,482 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+46%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-38%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-73%
182 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
11,441
A: 32 / B: 11409
Series A
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,514 raw → 2,514 prepared
Series B
USD/CAD Exchange Rate
DEXCAUS
FRED · 13,891 raw → 13,891 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
41
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.2617
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexcaus_fred-sp500_daily_5y