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Correlation
of values
+32%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
667
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USD/CAD Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Building Permits
Watch USD/CAD Exchange Rate for an early read on Building Permits.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+32%
Based on values
95% CI
+25% → +39%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
667 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
799
13,968
Normalized
799
13,968
Prepared
799
669
Aligned
667
667
Invalid removed
R²(i)
10%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
667
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+49%
+17% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CAD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Building Permits today line up with USD/CAD Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
649 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+35%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+24%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-77%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
134
A: 132 / B: 2
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 799 raw → 799 prepared
Series B
USD/CAD Exchange Rate
DEXCAUS
FRED · 13,968 raw → 669 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
44
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.0504
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dexcaus_fred-permit_monthly_5y