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Correlation
of values
-30%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-20
2,889
These move opposite each other about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-30%
Based on values
95% CI
-33% → -27%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,889 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,889
13,891
Normalized
2,889
13,891
Prepared
2,889
2,889
Aligned
2,889
2,889
Invalid removed
R²(i)
9.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
2,889
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-30%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,889 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-30%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0%
83 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+2%
94 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-19%
72 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,889 raw → 2,889 prepared
Series B
USD/CAD Exchange Rate
DEXCAUS
FRED · 13,891 raw → 2,889 prepared
Sign agreement
29.4%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
23
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0484
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.2351
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexcaus_fred-nfci_weekly_5y