Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+29%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2024-01
51
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
USD/CAD Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Real Median Personal Income in the United States
Watch USD/CAD Exchange Rate for an early read on Real Median Personal Income in the United States.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+29%
Based on values
95% CI
+1% → +52%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
51 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
51
13,891
Normalized
51
13,891
Prepared
51
665
Aligned
51
51
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
51
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+68%
+39% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CAD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Real Median Personal Income in the United States today line up with USD/CAD Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
33 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+68%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+25%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+7%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
23 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
614
A: 0 / B: 614
Series A
Real Median Personal Income in the United States
MEPAINUSA672N
FRED · 51 raw → 51 prepared
Series B
USD/CAD Exchange Rate
DEXCAUS
FRED · 13,891 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.9495
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexcaus_fred-mepainusa672n_monthly_5y