Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+21%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
220
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Debt-to-GDP Ratio moves ~18 months before USD/CAD Exchange Rate
Watch Debt-to-GDP Ratio for an early read on USD/CAD Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+21%
Based on values
95% CI
+8% → +33%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
220 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
240
13,891
Normalized
240
13,891
Prepared
240
665
Aligned
220
220
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
220
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+26%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CAD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Debt-to-GDP Ratio today line up with USD/CAD Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
202 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+26%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+44%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+24%
37 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
122 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
465
A: 20 / B: 445
Series A
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
GFDEGDQ188S
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Series B
USD/CAD Exchange Rate
DEXCAUS
FRED · 13,891 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0011
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.1568
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexcaus_fred-gfdegdq188s_monthly_5y