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Correlation
of values
-37%
In sync
of periods
26%
History
monthsmonths · through 2024-01
54
These move opposite each other about 26% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
USD/CAD Exchange Rate moves ~14 months before Inflation, consumer prices
Watch USD/CAD Exchange Rate for an early read on Inflation, consumer prices.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
26.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-37%
Based on values
95% CI
-58% → -11%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
54 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
65
13,891
Normalized
65
13,891
Prepared
65
665
Aligned
54
54
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
54
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-14 months
Correlation at this shift
-62%
+25% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CAD Exchange Rate shifted 14 months later. Reads: "Does Inflation, consumer prices today line up with USD/CAD Exchange Rate 14 months ago?"
40 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-14 months
-62%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+4%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-81%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-51%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
622
A: 11 / B: 611
Series A
Inflation, consumer prices
FPCPITOTLZGUSA
FRED · 65 raw → 65 prepared
Series B
USD/CAD Exchange Rate
DEXCAUS
FRED · 13,891 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
98.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0209
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.3138
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexcaus_fred-fpcpitotlzgusa_monthly_5y