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Correlation
of values
-61%
In sync
of periods
40%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
13,885
These move opposite each other about 40% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~37% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-61%
Based on values
95% CI
-62% → -60%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13,885 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
13,885
13,891
Normalized
13,885
13,891
Prepared
13,885
13,891
Aligned
13,885
13,885
Invalid removed
R²(i)
36.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
13,885
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-61%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
13,885 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-61%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-18%
75 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-23%
64 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
110 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
6
A: 0 / B: 6
Series A
GBP/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSUK
FRED · 13,885 raw → 13,885 prepared
Series B
USD/CAD Exchange Rate
DEXCAUS
FRED · 13,891 raw → 13,891 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
63
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2938
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.7270
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexcaus_fred-dexusuk_daily_5y