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Correlation
of values
-39%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
13,879
These move opposite each other about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~15% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-39%
Based on values
95% CI
-40% → -38%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13,879 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
13,879
13,891
Normalized
13,879
13,891
Prepared
13,879
13,891
Aligned
13,879
13,879
Invalid removed
R²(i)
15.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
13,879
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-39%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
13,879 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+4%
73 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-22%
65 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
111 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
12
A: 0 / B: 12
Series A
USD/JPY Exchange Rate
DEXJPUS
FRED · 13,879 raw → 13,879 prepared
Series B
USD/CAD Exchange Rate
DEXCAUS
FRED · 13,891 raw → 13,891 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
40
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0009
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.3769
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexcaus_fred-dexjpus_daily_5y