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Correlation
of values
+85%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-20
1,222
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~72% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+85%
Based on values
95% CI
+83% → +86%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,222 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,223
7,868
Normalized
1,223
7,868
Prepared
1,223
1,637
Aligned
1,222
1,222
Invalid removed
R²(i)
71.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,222
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+85%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,222 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+85%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+85%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+53%
52 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-7%
55 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
142 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
416
A: 1 / B: 415
Series A
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,223 raw → 1,223 prepared
Series B
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,868 raw → 1,637 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.5386
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexbzus_fred-walcl_weekly_5y