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Correlation
of values
-27%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
375
These move opposite each other about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
USD/BRL Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Unemployment Rate
Watch USD/BRL Exchange Rate for an early read on Unemployment Rate.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-27%
Based on values
95% CI
-37% → -18%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
375 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
939
7,868
Normalized
939
7,868
Prepared
939
377
Aligned
375
375
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
375
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-34%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/BRL Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Unemployment Rate today line up with USD/BRL Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
357 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-34%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+47%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+9%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-37%
147 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
566
A: 564 / B: 2
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 939 raw → 939 prepared
Series B
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,868 raw → 377 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
21
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2175
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.0784
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexbzus_fred-unrate_monthly_5y