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Correlation
of values
-25%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
7,832
These move opposite each other about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-25%
Based on values
95% CI
-27% → -23%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
7,832 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
12,490
7,868
Normalized
12,490
7,868
Prepared
12,490
7,868
Aligned
7,832
7,832
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
7,832
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-25%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
7,832 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-25%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+13%
82 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
79 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
88 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
4,694
A: 4658 / B: 36
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,490 raw → 12,490 prepared
Series B
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,868 raw → 7,868 prepared
Sign agreement
86.7%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
49
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3891
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.2529
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexbzus_fred-t10y2y_daily_5y