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Correlation
of values
-26%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
daysdays · through 2026-08-28
7,904
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~7% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-26%
Based on values
95% CI
-28% → -24%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
7,904 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
12,560
7,940
Normalized
12,560
7,940
Prepared
12,560
7,940
Aligned
7,904
7,904
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
7,904
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-26%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
7,904 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-26%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
4,692
A: 4656 / B: 36
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,560 raw → 12,560 prepared
Series B
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,940 raw → 7,940 prepared
Sign agreement
86.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
41
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4004
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.2819
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dexbzus_fred-t10y2y_daily_5y