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Correlation
of values
+17%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
375
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~3% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+17%
Based on values
95% CI
+7% → +27%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
375 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
796
7,868
Normalized
796
7,868
Prepared
796
377
Aligned
375
375
Invalid removed
R²(i)
2.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
375
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+17%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
375 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+17%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+17%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+56%
66 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-7%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-37%
136 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
423
A: 421 / B: 2
Series A
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Series B
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,868 raw → 377 prepared
Sign agreement
59.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2115
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.7933
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexbzus_fred-sahmrealtime_monthly_5y