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Correlation
of values
+39%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
3,232
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+39%
Based on values
95% CI
+37% → +42%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
3,232 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
3,247
7,868
Normalized
3,247
7,868
Prepared
3,247
7,868
Aligned
3,232
3,232
Invalid removed
R²(i)
15.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
3,232
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+39%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
3,232 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-6%
72 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-14%
66 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
111 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
4,651
A: 15 / B: 4636
Series A
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,247 raw → 3,247 prepared
Series B
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,868 raw → 7,868 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
30
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0007
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.9529
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexbzus_fred-rrpontsyd_daily_5y