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Correlation
of values
-44%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
377
These move opposite each other about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~20% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-44%
Based on values
95% CI
-52% → -36%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
377 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
533
7,868
Normalized
533
7,868
Prepared
533
377
Aligned
377
377
Invalid removed
R²(i)
19.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
377
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-44%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
377 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-11%
65 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-4%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
128 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
156
A: 156 / B: 0
Series A
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Series B
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,868 raw → 377 prepared
Sign agreement
93.4%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.6141
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.8045
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexbzus_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y