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Correlation
of values
+90%
In sync
of periods
62%
History
monthsmonths · through 2024-01
30
These move in the same direction about 62% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~82% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
62.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+90%
Based on values
95% CI
+81% → +95%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
30 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
51
7,868
Normalized
51
7,868
Prepared
51
377
Aligned
30
30
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
81.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
30
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+90%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
30 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+90%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+90%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-37%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
368
A: 21 / B: 347
Series A
Real Median Personal Income in the United States
MEPAINUSA672N
FRED · 51 raw → 51 prepared
Series B
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,868 raw → 377 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0004
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-11.2444
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexbzus_fred-mepainusa672n_monthly_5y