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Correlation
of values
+88%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
124
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~77% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+88%
Based on values
95% CI
+83% → +91%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
124 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
240
7,868
Normalized
240
7,868
Prepared
240
377
Aligned
124
124
Invalid removed
R²(i)
77.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
124
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+88%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
124 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+88%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+64%
54 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+35%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-28%
63 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
369
A: 116 / B: 253
Series A
Federal Debt
GFDEBTN
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Series B
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,868 raw → 377 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.8693
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexbzus_fred-gfdebtn_monthly_5y