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Correlation
of values
+88%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
125
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~77% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+88%
Based on values
95% CI
+83% → +91%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
125 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
317
7,868
Normalized
317
7,868
Prepared
317
377
Aligned
125
125
Invalid removed
R²(i)
76.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
125
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+88%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
125 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+88%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+24%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
60 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
444
A: 192 / B: 252
Series A
Real GDP
GDPC1
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Series B
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,868 raw → 377 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0004
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-3.5312
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexbzus_fred-gdpc1_monthly_5y