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Correlation
of values
+40%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2024-01
30
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
USD/BRL Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Inflation, consumer prices
Watch USD/BRL Exchange Rate for an early read on Inflation, consumer prices.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+40%
Based on values
95% CI
+4% → +66%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
30 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
65
7,868
Normalized
65
7,868
Prepared
65
377
Aligned
30
30
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
15.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
30
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+74%
+35% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/BRL Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Inflation, consumer prices today line up with USD/BRL Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+74%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+30%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-74%
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
382
A: 35 / B: 347
Series A
Inflation, consumer prices
FPCPITOTLZGUSA
FRED · 65 raw → 65 prepared
Series B
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,868 raw → 377 prepared
Sign agreement
96.7%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3535
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.7932
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexbzus_fred-fpcpitotlzgusa_monthly_5y