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Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) vs Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Correlation
of % moves
+49%
In sync
of periods
82%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
18
These move in the same direction about 82% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~24% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Debt-to-GDP Ratio moves ~5 months before DELL
Watch Debt-to-GDP Ratio for an early read on DELL.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
82.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+49%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+1% → +79%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
18 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
240
Normalized
1,254
240
Prepared
61
240
Aligned
18
18
Invalid removed
R²(i)
24.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
18
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -7 to 7 months.
Selected shift
-5 months
Correlation at this shift
-73%
+24% stronger than no-shift baseline
Debt-to-GDP Ratio shifted 5 months later. Reads: "Does Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) today line up with Debt-to-GDP Ratio 5 months ago?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+49%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-5 months
-73%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+60%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+53%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
265
A: 43 / B: 222
Series A
Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)
DELL
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
GFDEGDQ188S
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0286
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0000
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-gfdegdq188s_stock-dell_monthly_5y