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Correlation
of values
+36%
In sync
of periods
65%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-01
5,897
These move in the same direction about 65% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
65%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+36%
Based on values
95% CI
+34% → +38%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
5,897 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,925
10,236
Normalized
5,925
10,236
Prepared
5,925
10,236
Aligned
5,897
5,897
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
13%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
5,897
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+36%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
5,897 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
4,367
A: 28 / B: 4339
Series A
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,925 raw → 5,925 prepared
Series B
WTI Crude Oil
DCOILWTICO
FRED · 10,236 raw → 10,236 prepared
Sign agreement
99.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
129
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
14.3424
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
40.7700
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-dcoilwtico-vs-fred-t5yie-daily