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Correlation
of values
+64%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
487
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~40% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+64%
Based on values
95% CI
+58% → +69%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
487 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
10,236
Normalized
811
10,236
Prepared
811
489
Aligned
487
487
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
40%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
487
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+64%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
487 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+64%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+23%
32 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-70%
45 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
326
A: 324 / B: 2
Series A
M2 Money Supply
M2SL
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
WTI Crude Oil
DCOILWTICO
FRED · 10,236 raw → 489 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0030
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
21.2679
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dcoilwtico_fred-m2sl_monthly_5y