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Correlation
of values
-43%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
487
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~19% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
WTI Crude Oil moves ~13 months before Housing Starts
Watch WTI Crude Oil for an early read on Housing Starts.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-43%
Based on values
95% CI
-50% → -36%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
487 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
10,231
Normalized
811
10,231
Prepared
811
488
Aligned
487
487
Invalid removed
R²(i)
19%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
487
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-13 months
Correlation at this shift
-53%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
WTI Crude Oil shifted 13 months later. Reads: "Does Housing Starts today line up with WTI Crude Oil 13 months ago?"
474 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-43%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-13 months
-53%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-6%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-6%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-68%
40 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
325
A: 324 / B: 1
Series A
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
WTI Crude Oil
DCOILWTICO
FRED · 10,231 raw → 488 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
43
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0347
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
95.4700
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dcoilwtico_fred-houst_monthly_5y