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Correlation
of values
-66%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-01
10,131
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~44% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-66%
Based on values
95% CI
-67% → -65%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
10,131 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
16,155
10,236
Normalized
16,155
10,236
Prepared
16,155
10,236
Aligned
10,131
10,131
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
44%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
10,131
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-66%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
10,131 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-66%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
6,129
A: 6024 / B: 105
Series A
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
FRED · 16,155 raw → 16,155 prepared
Series B
WTI Crude Oil
DCOILWTICO
FRED · 10,236 raw → 10,236 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
91
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-8.2326
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
83.2159
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dcoilwtico_fred-dgs5_daily_5y