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Correlation
of values
-83%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
484
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~69% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Baa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~18 months before Total Consumer Credit
Watch Baa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on Total Consumer Credit.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-83%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
484 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,000
10,161
Normalized
1,000
10,161
Prepared
1,000
487
Aligned
484
484
Invalid removed
69%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
484
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-89%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Baa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Total Consumer Credit today line up with Baa Corporate Bond Yield 18 months ago?"
466 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-83%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-89%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-2%
32 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-32%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-15%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
519
A: 516 / B: 3
Series A
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,000 raw → 1,000 prepared
Series B
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,161 raw → 487 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.8962
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dbaa_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y