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Correlation
of values
-79%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
483
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~62% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Baa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~18 months before PPI: All Commodities
Watch Baa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on PPI: All Commodities.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-79%
Based on values
95% CI
-82% → -75%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
483 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
10,124
1,359
Normalized
10,124
1,359
Prepared
485
1,359
Aligned
483
483
Invalid removed
R²(i)
62.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
483
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-85%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
PPI: All Commodities shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Baa Corporate Bond Yield today line up with PPI: All Commodities 18 months from now?"
465 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-79%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-85%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+39%
80 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+10%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
113 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
878
A: 2 / B: 876
Series A
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,124 raw → 485 prepared
Series B
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,359 raw → 1,359 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-18.5430
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
294.3339
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dbaa_fred-ppiaco_monthly_5y