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Correlation
of values
-83%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
487
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~68% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-83%
Based on values
95% CI
-85% → -80%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
487 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
10,202
Normalized
811
10,202
Prepared
811
488
Aligned
487
487
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
68%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
487
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-83%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
487 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-83%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-83%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-16%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
49 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
325
A: 324 / B: 1
Series A
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,202 raw → 488 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0844
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
14.1013
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dbaa_fred-pcepilfe_monthly_5y