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Correlation
of values
-84%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
485
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~71% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Baa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~18 months before Nonfarm Payrolls
Watch Baa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on Nonfarm Payrolls.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-84%
Based on values
95% CI
-86% → -81%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
485 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,049
10,143
Normalized
1,049
10,143
Prepared
1,049
486
Aligned
485
485
Invalid removed
R²(i)
70.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
485
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-90%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Baa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Nonfarm Payrolls today line up with Baa Corporate Bond Yield 18 months ago?"
467 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-84%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-90%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+53%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+93%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-66%
37 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
565
A: 564 / B: 1
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,049 raw → 1,049 prepared
Series B
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,143 raw → 486 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
20.8876
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dbaa_fred-payems_monthly_5y