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Correlation
of values
-84%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
486
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~70% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Baa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~18 months before Nonfarm Payrolls
Watch Baa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on Nonfarm Payrolls.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-84%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
486 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,050
10,161
Normalized
1,050
10,161
Prepared
1,050
487
Aligned
486
486
Invalid removed
70%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
486
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-90%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Baa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Nonfarm Payrolls today line up with Baa Corporate Bond Yield 18 months ago?"
468 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-84%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-90%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+39%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+15%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
40 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
565
A: 564 / B: 1
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,050 raw → 1,050 prepared
Series B
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,161 raw → 487 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
20.8328
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dbaa_fred-payems_monthly_5y