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Correlation
of values
+95%
In sync
of periods
73%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-27
2,114
These move in the same direction about 73% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~90% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
73%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+95%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,114 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,884
10,161
Normalized
2,884
10,161
Prepared
2,884
2,114
Aligned
2,114
2,114
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
90%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
2,114
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+95%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,114 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+95%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+95%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
770
A: 770 / B: 0
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,884 raw → 2,884 prepared
Series B
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,161 raw → 2,114 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
97
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.8927
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.1796
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dbaa_fred-mortgage30us_weekly_5y