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Correlation
of values
-75%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
487
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~57% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Baa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~18 months before M2 Money Supply
Watch Baa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on M2 Money Supply.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-75%
Based on values
95% CI
-79% → -71%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
487 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
10,202
Normalized
811
10,202
Prepared
811
488
Aligned
487
487
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
57%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
487
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-81%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Baa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does M2 Money Supply today line up with Baa Corporate Bond Yield 18 months ago?"
469 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-75%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-81%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+63%
32 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
47 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
325
A: 324 / B: 1
Series A
M2 Money Supply
M2SL
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,202 raw → 488 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0002
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.1472
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dbaa_fred-m2sl_monthly_5y