SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-87%
of values
In sync
42%
of periods
History
161
weeks · through 2026-01
These move opposite each other about 42% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~76% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Baa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~12 weeks before Real GDP
Watch Baa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on Real GDP.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-87%
Based on values
95% CI
-90% → -83%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
161 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
317
10,119
Normalized
317
10,119
Prepared
317
2,105
Aligned
161
161
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
76.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
161
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-94%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
Baa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Real GDP today line up with Baa Corporate Bond Yield 12 weeks ago?"
149 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-87%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
-94%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+10%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-32%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-50%
94 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,100
A: 156 / B: 1944
Series A
Real GDP
GDPC1
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Series B
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,119 raw → 2,105 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0004
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
13.3653
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-dbaa_fred-gdpc1_5y