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Correlation
of values
-82%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-02
8,146
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~67% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-82%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
8,146 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
10,161
8,185
Normalized
10,161
8,185
Prepared
10,161
8,185
Aligned
8,146
8,146
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
67%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
8,146
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-82%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
8,146 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-82%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-82%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,054
A: 2015 / B: 39
Series A
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,161 raw → 10,161 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,185 raw → 8,185 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
21
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2.6136
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
29.5295
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dbaa_fred-dexmxus_daily_5y