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Chevron Corporation (CVX) vs Personal Consumption
Correlation
of % moves
+41%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
58
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~17% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
CVX moves ~5 months before Personal Consumption
Watch CVX for an early read on Personal Consumption.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+41%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+17% → +61%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
807
Normalized
1,254
807
Prepared
60
807
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
16.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+5 months
Correlation at this shift
+52%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Personal Consumption shifted 5 months earlier. Reads: "Does Chevron Corporation (CVX) today line up with Personal Consumption 5 months from now?"
52 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 months
+52%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+36%
32 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-11%
25 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
751
A: 2 / B: 749
Series A
Chevron Corporation (CVX)
CVX
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
Personal Consumption
PCE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0246
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0050
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-pce_stock-cvx_monthly_5y