Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Carvana Co. (CVNA) vs Fed Funds Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-39%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
60
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~15% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-39%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
864
Normalized
1,254
864
Prepared
61
864
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
15%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-39%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
59 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+17%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+14%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-31%
45 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
805
A: 1 / B: 804
Series A
Carvana Co. (CVNA)
CVNA
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 864 raw → 864 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2490
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0609
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_stock-cvna_monthly_5y