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Correlation
of values
+41%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
605
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks moves ~18 months before Total Vehicle Sales
Watch CPI: Used Cars & Trucks for an early read on Total Vehicle Sales.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+41%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
605 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
606
881
Normalized
606
881
Prepared
606
881
Aligned
605
605
Invalid removed
17%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
605
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+51%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Total Vehicle Sales today line up with CPI: Used Cars & Trucks 18 months ago?"
587 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-5%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-37%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-24%
24 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
277
A: 1 / B: 276
Series A
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 606 raw → 606 prepared
Series B
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 881 raw → 881 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
6.4995
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
33.3853
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-cusr0000seta02_fred-totalsa_monthly_5y