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Correlation
of values
-42%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
535
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~18% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks moves ~15 months before 10Y-3M Yield Spread
Watch CPI: Used Cars & Trucks for an early read on 10Y-3M Yield Spread.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-42%
Based on values
95% CI
-49% → -35%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
535 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
11,173
883
Normalized
11,173
883
Prepared
537
883
Aligned
535
535
Invalid removed
R²(i)
18%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
535
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-15 months
Correlation at this shift
-51%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks shifted 15 months later. Reads: "Does 10Y-3M Yield Spread today line up with CPI: Used Cars & Trucks 15 months ago?"
520 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-42%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-15 months
-51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+10%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-34%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-39%
37 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
350
A: 2 / B: 348
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,173 raw → 537 prepared
Series B
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 883 raw → 883 prepared
Sign agreement
89.2%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-8.2416
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
154.7782
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-cusr0000seta02_fred-t10y3m_monthly_5y