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Correlation
of values
+68%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
119
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~46% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+68%
Based on values
95% CI
+57% → +77%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
119 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,512
883
Normalized
2,512
883
Prepared
121
883
Aligned
119
119
Invalid removed
R²(i)
46%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
119
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+68%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
119 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+68%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+68%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-31%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
60 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
766
A: 2 / B: 764
Series A
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,512 raw → 121 prepared
Series B
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 883 raw → 883 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0122
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
117.0931
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-cusr0000seta02_fred-sp500_monthly_5y