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Correlation
of values
+78%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
176
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~60% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+78%
Based on values
95% CI
+71% → +83%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
176 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
3,239
879
Normalized
3,239
879
Prepared
178
879
Aligned
176
176
Invalid removed
R²(i)
60.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
176
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+78%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
176 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+78%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+78%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+54%
38 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+22%
51 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-36%
86 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
705
A: 2 / B: 703
Series A
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,239 raw → 178 prepared
Series B
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 879 raw → 879 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0279
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
148.7130
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-cusr0000seta02_fred-rrpontsyd_monthly_5y