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Correlation
of values
+96%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
881
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~92% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+96%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
881 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,050
881
Normalized
1,050
881
Prepared
1,050
881
Aligned
881
881
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
92%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
881
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+96%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
881 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+96%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+96%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-31%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-72%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
169
A: 169 / B: 0
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,050 raw → 1,050 prepared
Series B
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 881 raw → 881 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0016
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-62.5713
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-cusr0000seta02_fred-payems_monthly_5y