Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-72%
In sync
of periods
32%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
59
These move in the same direction about 32% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~52% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Interest on Reserve Balances moves ~5 months before CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
Watch Interest on Reserve Balances for an early read on CPI: Used Cars & Trucks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
32%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-72%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,806
881
Normalized
1,806
881
Prepared
61
881
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
52%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+5 months
Correlation at this shift
-88%
+16% stronger than no-shift baseline
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks shifted 5 months earlier. Reads: "Does Interest on Reserve Balances today line up with CPI: Used Cars & Trucks 5 months from now?"
54 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-72%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 months
-88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-50%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+39%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
46 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
824
A: 2 / B: 822
Series A
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,806 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 881 raw → 881 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-4.1130
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
205.3534
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-cusr0000seta02_fred-iorb_monthly_5y