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Correlation
of values
-71%
In sync
of periods
35%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
61
These move in the same direction about 35% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~50% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Interest on Reserve Balances moves ~5 months before CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
Watch Interest on Reserve Balances for an early read on CPI: Used Cars & Trucks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-71%
Based on values
95% CI
-81% → -56%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
61 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,862
883
Normalized
1,862
883
Prepared
63
883
Aligned
61
61
Invalid removed
R²(i)
50%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
61
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+5 months
Correlation at this shift
-86%
+16% stronger than no-shift baseline
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks shifted 5 months earlier. Reads: "Does Interest on Reserve Balances today line up with CPI: Used Cars & Trucks 5 months from now?"
56 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-71%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 months
-86%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-31%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+45%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
46 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
824
A: 2 / B: 822
Series A
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,862 raw → 63 prepared
Series B
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 883 raw → 883 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-4.1133
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
205.0140
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-cusr0000seta02_fred-iorb_monthly_5y