Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-73%
In sync
of periods
30%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
58
These move in the same direction about 30% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~53% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Interest on Reserve Balances moves ~4 months before CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
Watch Interest on Reserve Balances for an early read on CPI: Used Cars & Trucks.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
29.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-73%
Based on values
95% CI
-83% → -57%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,777
880
Normalized
1,777
880
Prepared
60
880
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
R²(i)
52.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+4 months
Correlation at this shift
-88%
+16% stronger than no-shift baseline
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks shifted 4 months earlier. Reads: "Does Interest on Reserve Balances today line up with CPI: Used Cars & Trucks 4 months from now?"
54 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-73%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+4 months
-88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-95%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+39%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
46 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
824
A: 2 / B: 822
Series A
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,777 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 880 raw → 880 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-4.1127
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
205.5308
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-cusr0000seta02_fred-iorb_monthly_5y