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Correlation
of values
+58%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
244
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~33% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+58%
Based on values
95% CI
+49% → +65%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
244 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
880
5,107
Normalized
880
5,107
Prepared
880
245
Aligned
244
244
Invalid removed
R²(i)
33.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
244
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+58%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
244 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+58%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-9%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+43%
71 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
112 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
637
A: 636 / B: 1
Series A
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 880 raw → 880 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXBGS
FRED · 5,107 raw → 245 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3173
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
57.3680
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-cusr0000seta02_fred-dtwexbgs_monthly_5y