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Correlation
of values
-69%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
594
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~47% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks moves ~18 months before 30Y Treasury Yield
Watch CPI: Used Cars & Trucks for an early read on 30Y Treasury Yield.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-69%
Based on values
95% CI
-73% → -64%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
594 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
12,385
883
Normalized
12,385
883
Prepared
596
883
Aligned
594
594
Invalid removed
R²(i)
47%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
594
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-74%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does 30Y Treasury Yield today line up with CPI: Used Cars & Trucks 18 months ago?"
576 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-69%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-74%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+5%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+26%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
33 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
291
A: 2 / B: 289
Series A
30Y Treasury Yield
DGS30
FRED · 12,385 raw → 596 prepared
Series B
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 883 raw → 883 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-7.6939
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
181.5917
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-cusr0000seta02_fred-dgs30_monthly_5y