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Correlation
of values
-62%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
599
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~38% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks moves ~18 months before 2Y Treasury Yield
Watch CPI: Used Cars & Trucks for an early read on 2Y Treasury Yield.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-62%
Based on values
95% CI
-67% → -57%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
599 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
12,500
880
Normalized
12,500
880
Prepared
601
880
Aligned
599
599
Invalid removed
R²(i)
38.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
599
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-69%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does 2Y Treasury Yield today line up with CPI: Used Cars & Trucks 18 months ago?"
581 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-62%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-69%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+17%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+8%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
25 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
283
A: 2 / B: 281
Series A
2Y Treasury Yield
DGS2
FRED · 12,500 raw → 601 prepared
Series B
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 880 raw → 880 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-5.7816
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
161.5500
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-cusr0000seta02_fred-dgs2_monthly_5y