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Correlation
of values
+21%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
319
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
USD/VES Exchange Rate moves ~11 months before CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
Watch USD/VES Exchange Rate for an early read on CPI: Used Cars & Trucks.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+21%
Based on values
95% CI
+11% → +32%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
319 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
883
6,683
Normalized
883
6,683
Prepared
883
321
Aligned
319
319
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
319
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-11 months
Correlation at this shift
+48%
+27% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/VES Exchange Rate shifted 11 months later. Reads: "Does CPI: Used Cars & Trucks today line up with USD/VES Exchange Rate 11 months ago?"
308 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-11 months
+48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+73%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-39%
120 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
566
A: 564 / B: 2
Series A
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 883 raw → 883 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,683 raw → 321 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
5144.6872
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-692260.1113
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-cusr0000seta02_fred-dexvzus_monthly_5y