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Correlation
of values
-41%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
331
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks moves ~10 months before EUR/USD Exchange Rate
Watch CPI: Used Cars & Trucks for an early read on EUR/USD Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-41%
Based on values
95% CI
-49% → -31%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
331 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
883
6,941
Normalized
883
6,941
Prepared
883
333
Aligned
331
331
Invalid removed
R²(i)
17%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
331
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+10 months
Correlation at this shift
-47%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
EUR/USD Exchange Rate shifted 10 months earlier. Reads: "Does CPI: Used Cars & Trucks today line up with EUR/USD Exchange Rate 10 months from now?"
321 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+10 months
-47%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-13%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+7%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-35%
88 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
554
A: 552 / B: 2
Series A
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 883 raw → 883 prepared
Series B
EUR/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSEU
FRED · 6,941 raw → 333 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0031
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.6500
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-cusr0000seta02_fred-dexuseu_monthly_5y