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Correlation
of values
-19%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
514
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~3% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
USD/TWD Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
Watch USD/TWD Exchange Rate for an early read on CPI: Used Cars & Trucks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-19%
Based on values
95% CI
-27% → -10%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
514 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
883
10,470
Normalized
883
10,470
Prepared
883
515
Aligned
514
514
Invalid removed
R²(i)
3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
514
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-32%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/TWD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does CPI: Used Cars & Trucks today line up with USD/TWD Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
496 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-19%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-32%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-13%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-20%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
44 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
370
A: 369 / B: 1
Series A
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 883 raw → 883 prepared
Series B
USD/TWD Exchange Rate
DEXTAUS
FRED · 10,470 raw → 515 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0285
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
35.1581
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-cusr0000seta02_fred-dextaus_monthly_5y