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Correlation
of values
+52%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
546
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~27% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+52%
Based on values
95% CI
+46% → +58%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
546 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
882
11,432
Normalized
882
11,432
Prepared
882
547
Aligned
546
546
Invalid removed
R²(i)
27%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
546
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+52%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
546 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+52%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+52%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+1%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+43%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-18%
28 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
337
A: 336 / B: 1
Series A
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 882 raw → 882 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,432 raw → 547 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0085
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
6.4820
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-cusr0000seta02_fred-dexhkus_monthly_5y