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Correlation
of values
+56%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
376
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~32% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USD/BRL Exchange Rate moves ~15 months before CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
Watch USD/BRL Exchange Rate for an early read on CPI: Used Cars & Trucks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+56%
Based on values
95% CI
+49% → +63%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
376 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
880
7,868
Normalized
880
7,868
Prepared
880
377
Aligned
376
376
Invalid removed
R²(i)
31.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
376
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-15 months
Correlation at this shift
+62%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/BRL Exchange Rate shifted 15 months later. Reads: "Does CPI: Used Cars & Trucks today line up with USD/BRL Exchange Rate 15 months ago?"
361 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+56%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-15 months
+62%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+19%
63 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+11%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
125 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
505
A: 504 / B: 1
Series A
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 880 raw → 880 prepared
Series B
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,868 raw → 377 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
16
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0430
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-3.6726
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-cusr0000seta02_fred-dexbzus_monthly_5y