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Correlation
of % moves
+28%
In sync
of periods
58%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-06
1,143
These move in the same direction about 58% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+28%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+23% → +33%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,143 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,152
5,862
Normalized
1,152
5,862
Prepared
1,152
5,862
Aligned
1,143
1,143
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,143
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+28%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,142 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+28%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+32%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+62%
49 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
65 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
4,728
A: 9 / B: 4719
Series A
CTRA
Stock · 1,152 raw → 1,152 prepared
Series B
10Y Breakeven Inflation
T10YIE
FRED · 5,862 raw → 5,862 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
53
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1782
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0000
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-t10yie_stock-ctra_daily_5y